Team
3MIP is led by three co-leads, supported by domain experts and a 14-member advisory committee, and coordinated by project management at Cornell.
Leadership
Andrew Reid Bell
Schleifer Family Professor of Sustainability, Department of Global Development, Cornell University
Co-lead
Bell works on agent-based modeling of climate adaptation, migration, and food systems. He developed the MIDAS (Migration, Intensification, and Diversification as Adaptive Strategies) agent-based framework, formalized in Bell, Calvo-Hernandez & Oppenheimer (2019), and led the Bell et al. (2021) analysis projecting continued migration toward Bangladesh’s coast through 2100. Before joining Cornell in July 2024, he was Associate Professor at NYU.
Selected publications
- Bell, A. R., et al. (2021). Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100. Environmental Research Letters, 16(2), 024045. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b
- Bell, A. R., Calvo-Hernandez, C., & Oppenheimer, M. (2019). Migration, Intensification, and Diversification as Adaptive Strategies. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 1, 16102. doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.2019a16102
Kelsea Best
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil, Environmental & Geodetic Engineering and Knowlton School (City & Regional Planning), The Ohio State University
Co-lead
Best works on climate migration modeling, environmental migration in coastal Bangladesh, and agent-based simulation. Her PhD (Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, 2022) developed agent-based models of coastal Bangladesh migration — the same substantive ground as 3MIP’s first benchmark case. She is co-author of Migration and Displacement in a Changing Climate (Cambridge University Press, 2025) with Ober and McLeman, and joined Ohio State in 2023 with a joint appointment between engineering and city and regional planning.
Selected publications
- Best, K., Ober, K., & McLeman, R. (2025). Migration and Displacement in a Changing Climate. Cambridge University Press.
Lars Tierolf
Postdoctoral researcher, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Co-lead
Lars Tierolf is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM). Here he works on the development of agent-based models that capture household adaptation and migration decisions in response to climate change. In his doctoral dissertation entitled “Rising Waters: Tradeoffs in Climate Migration and Adaptation Under Future Flood Risk” he combined agent-based modeling with flood risk assessment models to study household adaptation and migration behavior under increasing flood risk. His 2023 Nature Scientific Reports paper presents a coupled agent-based model for France simulating household adaptation and migration decisions under future coastal flood risk — an architecture directly relevant to the Bangladesh benchmark case.
Selected publications
- Tierolf, L., Haer, T., Botzen, W. W., de Bruijn, J. A., Ton, M. J., Reimann, L., & Aerts, J. C. (2023). A coupled agent-based model for France for simulating adaptation and migration decisions under future coastal flood risk. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 4176.
- Tierolf, L., Haer, T., Athanasiou, P., Luijendijk, A. P., Botzen, W. W., & Aerts, J. C. (2024). Coastal adaptation and migration dynamics under future shoreline changes. Science of the Total Environment, 917, 170239. doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170239
Project management
Mario Keputa
Cornell University
Project coordinator.
Mario Keputa coordinates 3MIP’s operations across its co-leads, domain experts, and advisory committee. He holds an MPA in Financial and Economic Policy from Cornell University and has worked as a World Bank consultant on infrastructure and technology policy in Europe.
Domain experts
Researchers with domain expertise on Bangladesh and climate-related mobility who support the network.
Nassos Vafeidis
Group Leader, Coastal Risk and Sea Level Rise group, Kiel University (CAU)
Coastal systems, sea-level rise, GIS, and remote sensing.
Nassos joined the Institute of Geography at CAU in 2008 and leads the CRSLR Research Group. He has a background in Surveying Engineering (MEng, NTU Athens) and Physical Geography (MSc, PhD, King’s College London) and has specialised in GIS and remote sensing. He worked one year in industry and did his postdoc at the Flood Hazard Research Centre (Middlesex University), where he worked on the DINAS-Coast and Atlantis projects. Before joining CAU he was a visiting researcher at the University of the Aegean (Greece) and at the University of Southampton (UK).
Nassos has participated in a number of collaborative research projects and has co-authored more than 100 peer-reviewed articles and book chapters. He was a lead author of the First Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1), which was awarded the North-South prize of the Council of Europe, and has contributed to the Stern Review and to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
He teaches modules on Climate Change and Coastal Systems.
Hedda Bonatz
PhD researcher, Coastal Risk and Sea Level Rise group, University of Kiel
Population development, urbanization, climate mobility, and exposure to storm surges.
Hedda is a PhD researcher in the Coastal Risk and Sea Level Rise working group at the University of Kiel. Her work focuses on how spatial patterns of population development influence exposure and vulnerability to coastal hazards, including processes of flood-induced mobility and urbanization. She has a background in Geography and was part of the CoCliCo project, where she developed spatial population projections under different socio-economic scenarios using an extended gravity model.
Khandaker Jafor Ahmed
School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan
Climate vulnerability, migration, and health in low- and middle-income countries.
Dr. Khandaker Jafor Ahmed was recently a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability, and previously at Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of International Migration, where he worked on the Bangladesh Environment and Migration Survey (BEMS). His research examines climate vulnerability, migration, and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries, with particular focus on how environmental stressors affect population displacement and vulnerable communities. He earned his PhD in Environmental Studies from the University of Adelaide (2022). With 30 peer-reviewed publications, his work integrates quantitative and qualitative methods to understand climate-demographic relationships.
Ramesh Poluru
Senior Program Officer, The INCLEN Trust International, New Delhi, India
Demography, statistics, epidemiology, and public health surveillance.
Ramesh Poluru did his Masters and PhD in Population Studies from Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, India. Dr Poluru has more than two decades of experience in the conceptualization, implementation, and monitoring of large-scale socioeconomic, demographic, behavioural, biological, and operations research studies, and in the analysis and interpretation of primary and secondary data using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. He has published about 40 research papers in peer-reviewed journals, serves on research-proposal evaluation advisory committees, reviews for over forty journals and various international granting agencies, and sits on the editorial boards of eight international journals.
Muhammad Abdur Rahaman
Director, Center for People & Environ (CPE), Bangladesh
Climate migration, disaster risk reduction, and Nature-based Solutions.
Dr. Muhammad Abdur Rahaman serves as Director of the Center for People & Environ (CPE). He has worked in the climate science and policy field for more than 20 years, serving national and international organizations as a researcher, practitioner, and development actor across climate change, climate displacement and migration solutions, disaster risk reduction, climate-smart agricultural innovations, and the climate-and-health nexus.
Advisory committee
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Jeroen Aerts, Professor, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Thomas Bearpark, University of Exeter (LEEP Institute); PhD, Princeton 2025
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Michał Burzyński, Senior researcher, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
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Nic Choquette-Levy, Assistant Professor, Department of Geosciences, Penn State University
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Fabien Cottier, University of Geneva
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Alex de Sherbinin, Director, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University
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Roman Hoffmann, Research Scholar, Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Maxine Leis, Uppsala University
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Woi Sok Oh, University of Waterloo
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Michael Oppenheimer, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
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Michael Puma, Director, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Seynabou Sall, Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale (IPAR), Senegal
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Lisa Thalheimer, Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Loring Thomas, Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder
Participating modelers
A public directory of participating modeling teams will appear here after teams register and provide their consent to public listing. If you are a registered participant and wish to be listed, contact project management.
Planned for a future version, after consent is collected.